kumquat IMO, yes.
I recommend you do your own research and look into projections that Elon and TSLA investors have made. Even if they don't achieve FSD, their automobile business alone makes current stock prices undervalued.
Tesla is on track to achieve 20 million sales before 2030 (50% YoY growth, rapid expansions via Giga Berlin, Giga Texas and more) and the competitors are not even close. The legacy automakers will all face the manufacturing difficulties Tesla had in the past 10 years. The problem for them is that Tesla already solved their issues and are scaling monstrously.
With 20 million sales at ASP of $40k at gross margins of 40%, Tesla will have gross profits of $320 billion. Look up the biggest companies today. Tesla's gross profits will exceed their revenues. By this metric alone, Tesla is seriously undervalued.
If Tesla succeeds in FSD, then their current stock price will seem laughably low compared to where they'll be. FSD has a 90+% margin and will make each car have a NPV of $100k (Assuming 100k miles driven each year with 50% having passenger, charging $1 / mile and using $.50 / $.50 split between Tesla and the car owner).
Even without FSD, Tesla will 10X. With FSD, Tesla will 100X.
Tesla is NOT overpriced. The only bear case for TSLA is if competitors magically rise up and dethrone Tesla, but wishing that will happen is about as likely as winning the lottery. It is nearly impossible to overtake the first-mover who is decades ahead of the competition. It's been 8 years since Tesla announced the Model S. Where is the competition? Lucid Motors is planning a competitor vehicle delivery by April 2021, but I suspect they will have massive delays and even if they do deliver first units at that time, it will only be a very small amount. They will have difficulties scaling production, because everyone only wants to buy a Tesla. You need demand to scale. I've been hearing about the competition nonsense from Gordon Johnson, David Einhorn and everyone else in the TSLAQ community. Where are they? Why are they still having trouble meeting manufacturing targets that Tesla achieved 10 years ago?
