The thing is, if Tesla succeeds in FSD, their valuation will explode.
Think about it.
Elon Musk said that perfected FSD software is worth $100k per vehicle. Tesla will sell 30 million vehicles by 2030, but let's say only 20 million will purchase FSD software. Immediately, they will earn $2 trillion in revenue from FSD software by itself, and this will have a 95% profit margin, as it is software only.
This is not even including the revenue they would be making from the cars, tesla energy storage & generation, and Tesla's SD network.
Now you're probably asking why the hell anyone would pay $100k for FSD software. That is because you can use your car as a robotaxi, so this will mark a new stage in our economy, where cars will become investments rather than depreciating assets.
Tesla's goal is to charge $1/mile. $.50 will go to TSLA. Tesla predicts that $.18/mile will be the cost.
That leaves you with $.32/mile in profit.
Calculate the rate of return for your car if you assume your car will be driving 100k miles per year. It's actually close to 8% CAGR.
Anyone who thinks $400 billion valuation is the farthest Tesla can go is not considering how disruptive FSD will be. Tesla can become a $100 trillion company. My optimism about Tesla is not based on blind fanboyism, and it is not to troll this board. There is a legitimate reason why Tesla can be worth so much more than $400 billion.
Another thing I predict is that car sales will decline significantly from 85 million / year to 30 million / year, with Tesla producing all 30 million cars.