Tesla Investing Thread

BigPeePee

This thread is for all things related to TSLA, which will become a $100 trillion company in the coming decades.
All cars on the road will be Tesla. Your solar roof will be from Tesla. All energy grids will use Tesla. All trucks and ships will be Tesla.

After their record Q3 2020 financials, bears are crying and still denying Tesla's inevitable world domination. Let them cry and miss out on the greatest company in the world.

Right now, I dumped 50k into TSLA and I will be dumping 3-4k/month into TSLA.

CalebWetherell

BigPeePee

CalebWetherell Simple incredible. Outstanding. Why can't other companies be as great as Tesla?

The only competition is Google's Waymo, which uses maps, draws lines and is super specific, so it is difficult to scale. Tesla's FSD is generalized and is better able to handle novel situations.

I believe Google took the wrong approach to FSD. Can't believe they made such an amateurish mistake, and they are a $1+ trillion company.

Element50

BigPeePee It wasn't just Google. Everyone was building their technology on LIDAR. To your point, LIDAR is expensive, not scalable and ugly 😅. Yet, I haven't heard about any companies pivoting away from LIDAR (I'm sure they are secretly evaluating that), probably a result of sunk cost fallacy. The article below and articles it linked all showed skepticism of Elon's approach merely a year or two ago.

Lesson learned are...
Technology evolves quickly these days. Similarly, actuaries need more skills than drawing triangles and looking up the mortality table.
Value of tech companies come from the low marginal cost. You write some codes that work well and you can scale it around the world.
Buy Tesla? 🤣
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2019/05/12/elon-musks-hefty-anti-lidar-gamble-undermines-tesla-chances-of-survival/#17910c2246fe

BigPeePee

Bears and weak-hands trying to tank the stock. It won't work. TSLA will become a $100 trillion company.
Go ahead. It only gives me more time to buy more shares when they're cheap.

BigPeePee

Moment of silence for the fools who sold at the bottom.

BigPeePee

I love how this stock keeps dropping.
I'll keep snatching up more shares.

CalebWetherell

Element50 Yesterday on the investor call Elon said "we wouldn't use LIDAR if it was free" or something to that effect.

Current AV designs are "infrastructure independent". I think LIDAR has a stronger use case in an environment where the infrastructure is built to support an AV fleet. E.g. road lines with LIDAR reflection built in, stop lights that and signs that respond a certain way to LIDAR, etc.

Who knows if the best way in the environment would be LIDAR or Radar, or something else best suited for the task. But the future shouldn't be infrastructure independent if the whole fleet is AV.

This could deteriorate Teslas lead in AV. But it's a long ways away.

BigPeePee

Element50
I remember one Waymo engineer saying that Elon is full of shit in regards to LIDAR, yet that same engineer started a self-driving truck company that doesn't use LIDAR.
History will show that Saint Elon is right, and Tesla will control 99+% of the automotive market. I predict $100 trillion marketcap in the comin decades.

BigPeePee

I bought 10 more shares today at around 414.
Keep it up bears. I have 100k in cash after liquidating my index funds + 5k a month in disposable income.

CalebWetherell

BigPeePee

No wonder the market cap is so high right now. You and others don't feel the need to be compensated for all that Beta you're taking on the chin!

BigPeePee

CalebWetherell The market cap will seem puny compared to what it'll be 10, 20 and 30 years down the line.
I hope to be posting here in my yacht in a few years.

BigPeePee

The thing is, if Tesla succeeds in FSD, their valuation will explode.

Think about it.
Elon Musk said that perfected FSD software is worth $100k per vehicle. Tesla will sell 30 million vehicles by 2030, but let's say only 20 million will purchase FSD software. Immediately, they will earn $2 trillion in revenue from FSD software by itself, and this will have a 95% profit margin, as it is software only.
This is not even including the revenue they would be making from the cars, tesla energy storage & generation, and Tesla's SD network.

Now you're probably asking why the hell anyone would pay $100k for FSD software. That is because you can use your car as a robotaxi, so this will mark a new stage in our economy, where cars will become investments rather than depreciating assets.
Tesla's goal is to charge $1/mile. $.50 will go to TSLA. Tesla predicts that $.18/mile will be the cost.
That leaves you with $.32/mile in profit.
Calculate the rate of return for your car if you assume your car will be driving 100k miles per year. It's actually close to 8% CAGR.

Anyone who thinks $400 billion valuation is the farthest Tesla can go is not considering how disruptive FSD will be. Tesla can become a $100 trillion company. My optimism about Tesla is not based on blind fanboyism, and it is not to troll this board. There is a legitimate reason why Tesla can be worth so much more than $400 billion.

Another thing I predict is that car sales will decline significantly from 85 million / year to 30 million / year, with Tesla producing all 30 million cars.

BigPeePee

While cowards sold at the bottom, I continued to DCA and buy as many shares as possible. Too many cowards in TSLA. These dips are getting rid of the weak hands.

CalebWetherell

BigPeePee What is the DCA of all the shares you currently own? Maybe you can retire soon and be a cop in NYC like your old man just for fun.

BigPeePee

CalebWetherell Average price now is $415. Gonna keep riding this baby until it hits $40,000.

BigPeePee

I looked into investing really early and fell into the "Buy Index Funds" propaganda. My portfolio consisted entirely of SP500 index funds, primarily VOO and SWPPX. I think a diversified strategy of investing is a pussy way for cowards. You either go all in and make millions or go home with your shitty index fund's 7% average annual return.
Had I gone all-in on AAPL 6 years ago and DCAed every paycheck, I would already be a millionaire. Instead, I have a dogshit $500k networth, and it's looking like I won't be a millionaire by 30.

Younger investors should go all-in on a company that they really believe in. Don't be a coward and put only a little bit into TSLA or w/e. Go all-in.

CalebWetherell

BigPeePee

I also wish I bought Tesla with my net worth a while back!

I don't know if I agree with your strategy... But there is something to recognizing something that is going to make the world better, being passionate about it, and putting your money where your mouth is.

I did everything except the last part with Tesla 😢

Element50

BigPeePee Interesting point! if i read your post 8 months ago, I would have bought [a little] more PTON...
I felt super good about PTON in March before market priced in COVID. Yet the return is just a couple bikes (I had been a net seller since $50 😅 ). It's hard because every other blog post I read was people shorting the stock (same as Tesla a year ago), saying it's going to zero.

That being said I still think PTON is a great company. High margin. Very high NPS. Every bike owner I know loves it. Hope that they can ramp up supply more to reduce wait time.

BigPeePee

CalebWetherell

I also wish I bought Tesla with my net worth a while back!

I think many people feel this way, but what separates the rich from everyone else is the willingness to put more than an insignificant amount into risky, but smart investments. Elon Musk, for example, put all of his proceeds from his paypal sale to Space X and Tesla. People thought he would lose everything. Now he's worth $100 Billion.

BigPeePee

Element50

It's hard because every other blog post I read was people shorting the stock (same as Tesla a year ago), saying it's going to zero.

I think the best way is building your own projections and not listening to the armchair analysts. If there aren't any numbers in the bear case, you can disregard their argument immediately. If the bear case does have numbers, then you investigate further.
Be wary of any bear arguments that are very vague and non-concrete. In Tesla's case, the bear argument was about the incoming competition, which we're still waiting for almost a decade after the Model S unveiling.